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The Missing Edge in Risk Management

Synth generates AI-powered price path forecasts, helping leveraged traders and risk managers quantify liquidation probability before it happens.

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Connecting probabilistic price paths directly to leveraged position risk

Leveraged traders managing liquidation risk rely almost entirely on static margin calculators and reactive stop-losses. Very few have access to a real-time probabilistic model for the price behaviour that determines whether a position survives. Most leverage decisions are made on intuition rather than a rigorous forward distribution of liquidation probability.

Pioneering Liquidation Risk Intelligence

Synth bridges the gap between financial price prediction and leveraged position management. Our synthetic price distributions directly inform the probability of hitting liquidation thresholds. Giving you a quantitative risk overlay before you open or size a position.

Smart Treasury

Quantify Liquidation Probability

Know the model-estimated probability of your position being liquidated over your chosen time horizon

Onchain Referals

1h and 24h Forecast Windows

Match your risk horizon to intraday and overnight holding periods

Developer Incentive

Continuously Calibrated

Models are continuously updated and served to you via API or MCP

Synth API Supported Assets

BTC
ETH
SOL
XAU
SPY
NVDA
TSLA
APPL
GOOGL

Core metrics

$2.9m paid to data scientists
20-30% Improvement on GBM benchmark
Hundreds of AI models competing in real-time
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FAQ

How do you calculate liquidation probability for a leveraged crypto position?

Liquidation probability depends on the distance between your current price and liquidation threshold, combined with a forward estimate of how likely price is to reach that level within your holding period. Synth generates AI-powered price path distributions that express this probability quantitatively - giving you a model-driven risk estimate before you open or size a position.

What is the best way to manage liquidation risk in crypto trading?

Most traders manage liquidation risk reactively using stop-losses and margin top-ups. A more robust approach uses forward-looking probability estimates to size positions and set leverage levels before entry. Synth's price distributions allow traders and risk systems to quantify the likelihood of hitting a liquidation level over a defined time horizon.

Can probabilistic forecasts predict crypto liquidations?

Models can't predict individual liquidations with certainty, but they can generate probabilistic estimates of whether price is likely to reach a given threshold. Synth's ensemble of continuously calibrated models produces price path distributions that directly express liquidation probability - a more rigorous input than static margin calculators or lagging volatility metrics.

How can liquidation risk data be integrated into trading systems?

Synth's liquidation probability outputs are available via API and MCP, making them suitable for integration into automated risk management systems, portfolio monitors, or position sizing tools. Any system that needs a real-time forward estimate of downside price risk can consume Synth's forecasts programmatically.